Hoping the Phillies can beat the Yankees
As I write this, I'm waiting patiently for Game 1 of the 2009 World Series. Actually, I'm not all that patient. This year's baseball postseason has been ridiculous in terms of time.
California Angels manager Mike Scioscia was right on target to complain about eight postseason games in 20 days. How does it make sense to drag out playoffs in a sport where 162 games are played in about 185 days?
This is like watching paint dry.
It's yet another homage to the almighty dollar. By spreading the playoffs out, there are more opportunities for TV time and more ads to sell. It's all about the Benjamins when it should be about the Toriis, A-Rods, Coles and Mannys. If you're not a baseball fan, those are the first names of four of the biggest stars who made it to one of the two league championship series.
Now it's down to the wonderful Philadelphia Phillies and the despicable, detestable, disgusting, vile, godless, greedy, humorless, egotistical New York Yankees.
Guess which team I'm rooting for.
It's no secret that I hate the Yankees. In my life, only Thurman Munson and Jim "Catfish" Hunter wore the pinstripes and counted me among their fans.
Don't get me wrong, I can respect Yankees and not like them. After all, this is fandom, not a realm where logic has any notable role. Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and a few others have my respect.
Some players were on my A-list right up until they signed to play in the Bronx. Think Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira -- and I'm not even a Rangers fan.
If Charles Manson put together a prison baseball team and played the Yankees, I'd be a neutral observer.
Luckily I have the following reasons to be rooting for the Phillies:
>> Ryan Howard. I joined Howard's fan club when he was still in the minors and Jim Thome was playing first for Philadelphia. I stashed Howard away on my fantasy team, a move that now pays big dividends each year.
>> Cole Hamels. Another guy who crossed my radar as a minor leaguer. He's been a member of the Showboats ever since.
>> Pedro Feliz. One of the things about fantasy baseball is that you look for consistency and role players. I've returned to Feliz several times over the years since 2003. Somehow he became my favorite player when he was still with the Giants. I guess because nobody else seems to care about him.
>> Jayson Werth. I found this guy playing outfield once for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He played 100 games or so and put up mediocre numbers. For some reason I kept drafting him in late rounds and now he's a powerhouse.
>> Shane Victorino. His great last name is reason enough to root for him. He plays the game with passion and energy and is just plain fun to watch.
>> Brad Lidge. How can you not love a guy who reclaimed his career last year after the Houston Astros gave up on him.
>> Joe Blanton. I saw him pitch in Midland in 2003. Enough said.
So I'll be the one in Cubs hat rooting for the Phillies. Or anyone other than the Yankees.
(c) Odessa Americanl.
Hoping the Phillies can beat the Yankees
As I write this, I'm waiting patiently for Game 1 of the 2009 World Series. Actually, I'm not all that patient. This year's baseball postseason has been ridiculous in terms of time.
California Angels manager Mike Scioscia was right on target to complain about eight postseason games in 20 days. How does it make sense to drag out playoffs in a sport where 162 games are played in about 185 days?
This is like watching paint dry.
It's yet another homage to the almighty dollar. By spreading the playoffs out, there are more opportunities for TV time and more ads to sell. It's all about the Benjamins when it should be about the Toriis, A-Rods, Coles and Mannys. If you're not a baseball fan, those are the first names of four of the biggest stars who made it to one of the two league championship series.
Now it's down to the wonderful Philadelphia Phillies and the despicable, detestable, disgusting, vile, godless, greedy, humorless, egotistical New York Yankees.
Guess which team I'm rooting for.
It's no secret that I hate the Yankees. In my life, only Thurman Munson and Jim "Catfish" Hunter wore the pinstripes and counted me among their fans.
Don't get me wrong, I can respect Yankees and not like them. After all, this is fandom, not a realm where logic has any notable role. Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, Joe DiMaggio, Yogi Berra, Mickey Mantle, Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and a few others have my respect.
Some players were on my A-list right up until they signed to play in the Bronx. Think Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira --- and I'm not even a Rangers fan.
If Charles Manson put together a prison baseball team and played the Yankees, I'd be a neutral observer.
Luckily I have the following reasons to be rooting for the Phillies:
>> Ryan Howard. I joined Howard's fan club when he was still in the minors and Jim Thome was playing first for Philadelphia. I stashed Howard away on my fantasy team, a move that now pays big dividends each year.
>> Cole Hamels. Another guy who crossed my radar as a minor leaguer. He's been a member of the Showboats ever since.
>> Pedro Feliz. One of the things about fantasy baseball is that you look for consistency and role players. I've returned to Feliz several times over the years since 2003. Somehow he became my favorite player when he was still with the Giants. I guess because nobody else seems to care about him.
>> Jayson Werth. I found this guy playing outfield once for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He played 100 games or so and put up mediocre numbers. For some reason I kept drafting him in late rounds and now he's a powerhouse.
>> Shane Victorino. His great last name is reason enough to root for him. He plays the game with passion and energy and is just plain fun to watch.
>> Brad Lidge. How can you not love a guy who reclaimed his career last year after the Houston Astros gave up on him.
>> Joe Blanton. I saw him pitch in Midland in 2003. Enough said.
So I'll be the one in Cubs hat rooting for the Phillies. Or anyone other than the Yankees.
(c) Odessa American.
Fantasy Baseball: Bronson Arroyo and the Challenge of Buying Low
Fantasy Baseball: Odds are there was a pitcher sitting on the waiver wire in your league at the All-Star break who would go on to have a 2.24 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in the second half. But Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo had a first-half ERA of 5.38 with a 1.48 WHIP, so most owners likely passed him by - and missed a chance to grab one of the top pitchers in the second half.
In hindsight, however, fantasy owners might have spotted some clues that Arroyo was going to turn his season around.
Arroyo's second-half is currently the fifth-best in baseball during that period. He trails only Adam Wainwright, Greinke, Chris Carpenter and Jair Jurrjens. Behind Arroyo are CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay.
Arroyo's second-half WHIP ties him for third with Sabathia and Lincecum, behind only Randy Wolf and Javier Vazquez. Arroyo's WHIP is ahead of all-world Greinke's, with the Royals' pitcher having one remaining start.
It is not as if Arroyo's first-half peripherals gave a hint as to what was to come. Arroyo somehow managed a 9-8 record, but in 112 innings, Arroyo had only 59 strikeouts, to go along with 41 walks. In 18 starts, Arroyo gave up 21 homers.
Arroyo did close out the first half with a complete-game shutout, but it was at Citi Field against the Mets. He started the second half with another scoreless effort - seven innings against the Brewers, which dropped his ERA to 5.07. But Arroyo followed up with two bad losses. He surrendered five ER in 5 1/3 IP against the Dodgers and allowed 11 baserunners in 6 1/3 IP against the light-hitting Padres.
In the game against the Padres, Arroyo gave up three ER, so he did get a quality start. Arroyo followed up with two more quality starts of 7 IP and 3 ER, not must-add, but at least a step in the right direction. The last of these starts came on August 8, leaving Arroyo with a 10-11 record and an ERA of 5.04. So in four starts after Arroyo had back-to-back scoreless efforts, his ERA only dropped by .03.
At the same time, Arroyo's team was in a state of collapse. On August 4, the Reds lost for the 14th time in 15 games. They only had four wins in their previous 23 games.
So when Arroyo pitched a complete-game shutout against the Nationals on August 13, it was still hard to get too excited about a mediocre pitcher on a bad team having a great game against the Nationals. Arroyo allowed only two hits, but he also got only three strikeouts. His complete-game shutout the previous month had not turned his fortunes around - why should this one?
But after this point, Arroyo would allow only 13 runs over his last nine starts, each of which went at least seven innings.
Arroyo's August 13 shutout proved to be the turning point in his season. Was there any way fantasy owners could have known it at the time?
One thing to have kept in mind in hindsight was that Arroyo had a similar turnaround last year. In 2008, Arroyo had even worse numbers before the break - 5.97 ERA and 1.66 WHIP - and dramatically improved after the break with a 3.47 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
In 2007, Arroyo also improved noticeably after the break - 4.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP before, 3.55 ERA and 1.31 WHIP after.
In 2005 and 2006, Arroyo was worse after the break, so one could not necessarily have classified him as a second-half pitcher at the start of this season. But now he has had three great second halves in a row.
Arroyo's August 13 shutout marked his fourth straight quality start. He gave up three runs in each of the first three, so it did not look like a great streak at the time. But he was almost a third of the way through thirteen consecutive quality starts.
Even though he faltered after his first complete-game shutout, the fact that Arroyo had two of them after a month also was a good sign in hindsight.
One of the main reasons why Arroyo might have been overlooked in many leagues until he was well into his great second half was his trouble picking up wins in July and August. Arroyo's August 13 shutout broke a three-game losing streak. He lost his next start, despite giving up one run in eight innings, and had no-decisions in his next two starts.
So in the first seven of Arroyo's thirteen-straight QS, he only had one win, along with three losses and three no-decisions. Someone just looking at Arroyo's win total during this period would not realize how well he was pitching.
Once again, quality starts trump wins when determining a pitcher's value.
Finally, as Faster Times MLB writer Lisa Swan noted, Arroyo made some startling revelations this summer. He admitted to using amphetamines and andro in the past and said that he still uses supplements that have not been approved by MLB.
Lisa's article was published on August 13, coincidentally the same day that Arroyo pitched the shutout that turned his season around.
Did Arroyo feel burdened by his PED use, and by his revelations, freed himself to have a great second half? We will probably never know.
But if Bronson Arroyo gets off to another bad start next year, keep an eye out for the turnaround.
(c) 2009 THE FASTER TIMES.
Fantasy Baseball: 2010 AL Closer Dynasty/Keeper Rankings
1. Mariano Rivera- Another year older, another year of a sub 2.00 ERA. I do think Mo's age will catch up with him one day, whether it be in the form of injury or inefective-itis, but I don't think that will be 2010. I think Rivera will have another season of 35+ saves and excellent peripherals.
2. Joe Nathan- Had a career high 47 saves and while he had the highest ERA in 4 years, a 2.10, isn't really all that bad. Look for an ERA around 2 with 35+ saves again and a K/9 possibly hovering over 10.
3. Jonathan Papelbon- Numbers close to career averages except a BB/9 of over 3, which is the highest since he'd been put in the closer role. Boston fans seem fed up with him and the Sox have a closer in waiting in Daniel Bard. Don't be surprised to hear Papelbon's name floated in trade rumors.
4. Joakim Soria- Posted the highest K/9 in his career and saved 30 games while missing time in 2009. Expect another season with peripherals hovering in the same area but don't be surprised to see another year with a low save total.
5. David Aardsma- Career highs across the board, including innings pitched. This will be the first time Aardsma has played back to back seasons in the same city, which could help his cause extremely and maybe provide the consistency needed.
6. Brian Fuentes- Had the most saves in baseball in 2009, but had a large drop in K/9 and a spike in whip (1.40 with a career of 1.26) He may get you a high total, but it may not be pretty.
7. Andrew Bailey- Logged 83.1 innings as a rookie so you can definitely see a regression. A regression could be a jump in whip and ERA, but expect the K's to be there.
8. J.P. Howell/Other- The closer situation in Tampa is a bit sketchy, but I don't feel confident with any of the closers left on this list, so Howell gets this by default. Keep in mind that the Rays could go out and get a closer in free agency or trade (hint: Billy Wagner.) If they do, that person would likely be number eight still.
9. Frank Francisco- Spent many weeks on the DL in the 2009 season, and had an ERA floating on the high end of the 3's. Possibly due to the injuries. I'm fine taking a closer on a solid offensive team this late.
10. Bobby Jenks/Matt Thornton/Other- Whispers have been spreading about Kenny Williams sending a letter mentioning his veterans being available in trades and Jenks was fairly disappointing in 2009. Thornton has the stuff to be a nasty closer and 2010 could be the season it happens.
(c) 2009 Sportsblogs, Inc.
Fantasy Baseball: Bronson Arroyo and the Challenge of Buying Low
Fantasy Baseball: Odds are there was a pitcher sitting on the waiver wire in your league at the All-Star break who would go on to have a 2.24 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in the second half. But Cincinnati's Bronson Arroyo had a first-half ERA of 5.38 with a 1.48 WHIP, so most owners likely passed him by - and missed a chance to grab one of the top pitchers in the second half.
In hindsight, however, fantasy owners might have spotted some clues that Arroyo was going to turn his season around.
Arroyo's second-half is currently the fifth-best in baseball during that period. He trails only Adam Wainwright, Greinke, Chris Carpenter and Jair Jurrjens. Behind Arroyo are CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay.
Arroyo's second-half WHIP ties him for third with Sabathia and Lincecum, behind only Randy Wolf and Javier Vazquez. Arroyo's WHIP is ahead of all-world Greinke's, with the Royals' pitcher having one remaining start.
It is not as if Arroyo's first-half peripherals gave a hint as to what was to come. Arroyo somehow managed a 9-8 record, but in 112 innings, Arroyo had only 59 strikeouts, to go along with 41 walks. In 18 starts, Arroyo gave up 21 homers.
Arroyo did close out the first half with a complete-game shutout, but it was at Citi Field against the Mets. He started the second half with another scoreless effort - seven innings against the Brewers, which dropped his ERA to 5.07. But Arroyo followed up with two bad losses. He surrendered five ER in 5 1/3 IP against the Dodgers and allowed 11 baserunners in 6 1/3 IP against the light-hitting Padres.
In the game against the Padres, Arroyo gave up three ER, so he did get a quality start. Arroyo followed up with two more quality starts of 7 IP and 3 ER, not must-add, but at least a step in the right direction. The last of these starts came on August 8, leaving Arroyo with a 10-11 record and an ERA of 5.04. So in four starts after Arroyo had back-to-back scoreless efforts, his ERA only dropped by .03.
At the same time, Arroyo's team was in a state of collapse. On August 4, the Reds lost for the 14th time in 15 games. They only had four wins in their previous 23 games.
So when Arroyo pitched a complete-game shutout against the Nationals on August 13, it was still hard to get too excited about a mediocre pitcher on a bad team having a great game against the Nationals. Arroyo allowed only two hits, but he also got only three strikeouts. His complete-game shutout the previous month had not turned his fortunes around - why should this one?
But after this point, Arroyo would allow only 13 runs over his last nine starts, each of which went at least seven innings.
Arroyo's August 13 shutout proved to be the turning point in his season. Was there any way fantasy owners could have known it at the time?
One thing to have kept in mind in hindsight was that Arroyo had a similar turnaround last year. In 2008, Arroyo had even worse numbers before the break - 5.97 ERA and 1.66 WHIP - and dramatically improved after the break with a 3.47 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
In 2007, Arroyo also improved noticeably after the break - 4.84 ERA and 1.48 WHIP before, 3.55 ERA and 1.31 WHIP after.
In 2005 and 2006, Arroyo was worse after the break, so one could not necessarily have classified him as a second-half pitcher at the start of this season. But now he has had three great second halves in a row.
Arroyo's August 13 shutout marked his fourth straight quality start. He gave up three runs in each of the first three, so it did not look like a great streak at the time. But he was almost a third of the way through thirteen consecutive quality starts.
Even though he faltered after his first complete-game shutout, the fact that Arroyo had two of them after a month also was a good sign in hindsight.
One of the main reasons why Arroyo might have been overlooked in many leagues until he was well into his great second half was his trouble picking up wins in July and August. Arroyo's August 13 shutout broke a three-game losing streak. He lost his next start, despite giving up one run in eight innings, and had no-decisions in his next two starts.
So in the first seven of Arroyo's thirteen-straight QS, he only had one win, along with three losses and three no-decisions. Someone just looking at Arroyo's win total during this period would not realize how well he was pitching.
Once again, quality starts trump wins when determining a pitcher's value.
Finally, as Faster Times MLB writer Lisa Swan noted, Arroyo made some startling revelations this summer. He admitted to using amphetamines and andro in the past and said that he still uses supplements that have not been approved by MLB.
Lisa's article was published on August 13, coincidentally the same day that Arroyo pitched the shutout that turned his season around.
Did Arroyo feel burdened by his PED use, and by his revelations, freed himself to have a great second half? We will probably never know.
But if Bronson Arroyo gets off to another bad start next year, keep an eye out for the turnaround.
(c) 2009 THE FASTER TIMES.
Fantasy Baseball: 2009 Breakout Hitters-NL Central
Continuing in the series of 2009 breakout hitters, here are the NL Central breakout hitters.
Reds-Jonny Gomes-four years ago, as a rookie on the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Gome went 21-54-9-.282-.372-.534-.906 in 348 ABs. His 2005 season lead to high expectations, which Gomes could not follow through with. Over the next 3 seasons, he played himself off the Rays team. His 2008 season was the nail in the coffin, where Gomes went 8-21-8-.182-.282-.383-.666, resulting in him being waived. The Reds took a flyer on him this season, and he has returned to his 2005 form going 20-51-3-.268-.340-.543-.883 in 276 ABs. I am not sure if he will start for the Reds in 2010, but he can provide some nice pop for a 4th -5th outfielder on fantasy teams.
Astros-Michael Bourn-Back in 2008, the Phillies traded Bourn to the Astros for a much needed closer-Brad Lidge. Lidge went on to have a perfect season in the save department, and oh by the way, won a World Series ring. Bourn, however, languished in Houston going 5-29-41-.229-.288-.300-.588, making Astros fans think they were robbed leaving them with the second coming of Willy Taveras. But 2009 was the year Bourn proved everyone wrong. He has gone 3-39-60-.290-.360-.388-.748. The 60 SBs are a welcome sight roto owners, but how many expected the .290 AVG?
Brewers-Casey McGehee-it took him 6 minor league seasons to make it to the majors, but Casey McGehee has made many fantasy owners smile in 2009, his rookie season. His 15 HRs, 65 RBI and .303-.364-.500-.864 line puts him in line to receive some ROY votes. McGehee was called up when second baseman Rickie Weeks went down with a wrist injury, and was probably one of the reasons why the Brewers dealt 3B/OF Bill Hall this year. McGehee should be the starting 3B for the Brewers in 2010, even though their top prospect Mat Gamel is also a 3B. There is thought that the Brewers may maximize their return by dealing 1B Prince Fielder this offseason after his monster 2009 season. Should that happen, Gamel would slide over to 1B where his defense, or lack thereof, won't hurt them as much.
Pirates-Garrett Jones-it took Jones 11 minor league season to make it to the majors, but like Casey McGehee, he will make the NL ROY voting very interesting this season. In the minors, Jones displayed pretty good power, but his career .312 OBP and .450 SLG lead many to believe that 2009 is an aberration, and he won't duplicate his 2009 production in 2010 and beyond. But Jones numbers are quite impressive. In 296 ABs, he has gone 21-44-10-.301-.375-.588-.963. Over a full season, that works out to 40+HRs and 20 SBs.
Pirates-Andrew McCutchen-since the Cubs and Cardinals didn't have any breakout hitters, I had to throw in one of my favorite rookies Andrew McCutchen. Sure, I traded him in the UBA league for Lance Berkman, and I am wishing I never pulled the trigger on that deal after the season McCutchen has put up. In 417 ABs, he has gone 12-54-17-.283-.355-.468-.823 with a 77/47 K/BB ratio. I have already stated that I think McCutchen will be better than the guy he replaced in CF for the Pirates, Nate McLouth, and I think he could be a top 10 OFer in NL leagues in 2010.
(c) 2009 Sportsblogs, Inc.
Fantasy Baseball: Finding a Steal When Looking for Steals
Fantasy Baseball: After an off-year in 2008, Tampa Bay's Carl Crawford has played himself back into first-round consideration this season. But ESPN's Eric Karabell argues that Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury will be a better value next season. Karabell points out that Ellsbury has had better numbers than Crawford in the second half and now has comparable numbers overall (except for homers).
Karabell argues that due to reputation and name recognition, Ellsbury figures to be drafted a lot lower than Crawford, making Ellsbury the better value in next year's drafts. However, fantasy owners looking for value among speedy outfielders may find even better value than Ellsbury.
Oakland's Rajai Davis (pictured) has had one of the most sensational second halves in all of baseball. And before he was injured, Washington's Nyjer Morgan was also putting up great second-half numbers.
Until recently, Davis and Morgan had almost no reputation in or out of fantasy baseball. Davis was released by the Giants early in the 2008 season. This season, Davis was a part-time player until Oakland traded Matt Holliday to St. Louis in late July. Morgan was traded by the lowly Pirates to the even lowlier Nationals on June 30 of this year.
But before he broke his hand on August 27, Morgan became the sparkplug of Washington's newly-potent offense. And since becoming the starting center fielder for Oakland, Davis has put up some of the best numbers in all of baseball.
Davis's post-break numbers surpass those of Crawford and Ellsbury, as the following chart shows (Morgan's numbers start on July 3, when he joined the Nationals.)
AB R HR RBI SB AVG OPS
Carl Crawford 227 32 6 27 15 .300 .827
Jacoby Ellsbury 255 39 3 30 24 .306 .806
Rajai Davis 232 43 1 40 29 .349 .871
Nyjer Morgan 191 35 1 12 24 .351 .831
In the second half, Davis surpasses Crawford and Ellsbury in every category except for homers. He has almost twice as many steals as Crawford. But Davis is much more than a one-category player - despite usually batting second, his 40 RBI tie him with Joe Mauer and Bobby Abreu, are one behind Davis Ortiz and are one ahead of Alex Rodriguez.
Morgan's sample size is smaller than those of the other players due to his injury. But before he got hurt, Morgan was stealing almost one base every two games since joining the Nationals - 24 steals in 49 games. Davis has been stealing at a similar rate in the second half - 29 steals in 61 games.
Even with fewer AB, Morgan has more runs scored than Crawford and almost as many as Ellsbury. But Morgan lags behind the others in rate of RBI.
When touting Ellsbury, Karabell describes him as a young player who is still improving. Ellsbury just turned 26 and is in his second full season. Crawford is 28. Morgan turned 29 in July and Davis turns 29 in October.
Getting older does not necessarily prevent one from being a top base stealer, as players such as Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins have shown. But it does make an outlier season more likely to be a career year than a breakout season.
Between Morgan and Davis, Morgan may have the better chance to duplicate this year's success. Morgan's fortunes changed when he was installed at the top of Washington's underrated lineup. Assuming Adam Dunn is back next season alongside rising star Ryan Zimmerman, Morgan will continue to be in a favorable situation. It is also worth noting that Morgan's season-ending injury was to his hand, not his legs, so it will not affect his base-stealing.
Davis, though could end up as a trade chip for the A's wheeler-dealer GM Billy Beane. Davis' value will probably never be higher than it is right now. Last year, the Pirates traded Morgan for the potential of the younger Lastings Milledge. Beane could aim for a similar deal for Davis. Depending on where he ends up, Davis' value could increase - or decrease.
Both Davis and Morgan saw their rate of steals per number of plate appearances drastically increase in the second half. Davis went from stealing one base every 11.45 plate appearances to one steal per 8.93 PA. Morgan's steal rate went from 15.16 to 9.16.
Ellsbury and Crawford are both stealing at a lower rate in the second half. Ellsbury has gone from one steal per 9.15 PA to one steal per 11/83 PA. Crawford has dropped from one steal every 8.8 PA to one steal every 17 PA.
Perhaps Ellsbury and Crawford are wearing down after stealing so many bases in the first half. Maybe Morgan would have worn down as well in September had he not gotten hurt. Davis' rate may well have gone up in the second half since he played so little in the first half, when he only had 126 PA (and 11 steals). In the second half, Davis has 259 PA and 29 steals.
While Davis and Morgan are not likely ever to enjoy the reputation of Crawford and Ellsbury, their performance in the second half of 2009 shows that they are also capable of providing lot of steals while still contributing in other categories, and at a much lower draft position.
(c) 2009 THE FASTER TIMES.
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